Dec 21, 2022; Dallas, Texas, USA; Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) in action during the game between the Dallas Stars and the Edmonton Oilers at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
- The Dallas Stars are home favorites in Game 1 against the Edmonton Oilers
- We’ve made our Oilers vs Stars prediction for the first game of the series
- Read below for Oilers vs Stars Game 1 prediction, odds, and player prop picks
Connor McDavid will look to lead the Edmonton Oilers to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time in his NHL career. In order to do so, the Oilers must get past the Dallas Stars in the Western Conference Final. Game 1 of the WCF goes Thursday night at 8 pm EST on TNT/CBC.
Oddsmakers are favoring the stingy Stars to prevail in the opening game of the series, pricing Pete DeBoer’s club as home favorites. We’ve made our Stars vs Oilers prediction to help you place an educated wager on Thursday’s Game 1.
Here is our prediction for Game 1, along with an odds breakdown and prop picks.
Oilers vs Stars Prediction
The Stars are favored to advance in the Oilers vs Stars series odds, but Game 1s haven’t been their friend. Dallas has dropped six straight playoff series openers, including at home against the Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche in the 2024 postseason.
Fortunately, the Oilers haven’t typically performed well in Game 1s recently either. Kris Knoblauch’s team is 1-5 in Game 1s over the past three playoffs, although that one victory came this season against the Los Angeles Kings in Round 1.
Round 2 ✔️
See you in Dallas 🔥 pic.twitter.com/a6yBUzssKn
— Edmonton Oilers (@EdmontonOilers) May 21, 2024
We like Dallas to prevail in this WCF series, and we’re going to ride with them in Game 1. The Stars took two of three regular-season meetings, including a 5-0 shutout victory in Dallas on April 3. Edmonton’s lethal power play went just 1-for-12 in the season series.
The Stars did a great job neutralizing Nathan MacKinnon in Round 2 and we can expect something similar to play out with Connor McDavid in Round 3. Dallas has only allowed 18 goals in 13 postseason games, and they held McDavid to one assist in the regular season.
Ultimately, though, the goalie mismatch is the main reason we can’t back Edmonton as underdogs. Oilers’ tendy Stuart Skinner (.881 SV%) lost his crease in Round 2 due to lackluster play, while Dallas’ Jake Oettinger has been a rock, allowing three or fewer goals in 10 of 13 playoff starts.
EDM-DAL Pick:
Oilers vs Stars Odds
| Team | Puck Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| EDM Oilers | +1.5 (-230) | +110 | Over 6 (-112) |
| DAL Stars | -1.5 (+190) | -130 | Under 6 (-108) |
Odds as of May 23 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Unlock the DraftKings promo code for Oilers vs Stars wagering.
Oddsmakers are setting the Stars as the -130 home favorites, which means they have a 56.5% implied win probability. The Oilers are a small +110 underdog, which gives them 47.7% implied win probability.
Bettors can also bet the puck line, with the -1.5 odds on Dallas at +190 being the more tempting bet. If you bet $10 on the Stars puck line and they win by at least two goals, you would profit $19.
However, the oddsmakers aren’t expecting a Dallas blowout. The +190 odds imply just a 35% chance of the Stars winning by 2+ goals. Edmonton’s puck line is +1.5 at -230, meaning they have to lose by two or fewer goals or win outright for the bet to pay out.
Oddsmakers are much more confident in Edmonton losing by two goals or less, as they’ve set the Oilers’ puck line odds at -230 (70% implied probability). In order to win $10 on the Oilers’ puck line, you’d have to wager $23.
In terms of over/under, the bookmakers have set this number at six, with odds slightly favoring the over at -112. If you take the over on the total, the two teams have to combine for more than six goals for the bet to cash. However, if they combine for exactly six, you get your money back.
Although the Stars are an elite defensive team, the over has actually hit in six of the past eight meetings between these two Western clubs.
EDM-DAL Player Props
In the Oilers vs Stars player props for Game 1, there is no odds-on favorite to find the back of the net. Zach Hyman was previously only available at minus odds to light the lamp in the opening two rounds, but oddsmakers have him priced at +100 facing this elite Stars defense.
| Player | Anytime Goalscorer | Shots on Goal (O/U) | Points (O/U) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Hyman | +100 | 3.5 (-110o/-120u) | 0.5 (-190o/+145u) |
| Leon Draisaitl | +125 | 2.5 (-150o/+120u) | 1.5 (+120o/-150u) |
| Connor McDavid | +140 | 3.5 (+124o/-160u) | 1.5 (-120o/-110u) |
| Wyatt Johnston | +180 | 2.5 (-150o/+120u) | 0.5 (-140o/+110u) |
| Jason Robertson | +225 | 2.5 (+114o/-145u) | 0.5 (-190o/+145u) |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | +270 | 2.5 (+135o/-175u) | 0.5 (-180o/+140u) |
| Tyler Seguin | +270 | 2.5 (+110o/-140u) | 0.5 (+105o/-135u) |
| Jamie Benn | +280 | 1.5 (-180o/+140u) | 0.5 (-110o/-120u) |
| Evander Kane | +285 | 2.5 (+110o/-140u) | 0.5 (+120o/-150u) |
| Joe Pavelski | +320 | 1.5 (-166o/+130u) | 0.5 (+100o/-130u) |
Stay tuned for our player prop bet recommendations closer to puck drop.
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.