Home » Who will win the U.S. Open in 2024? Odds, betting favorites, expert picks and more to know | Sporting News

Who will win the U.S. Open in 2024? Odds, betting favorites, expert picks and more to know | Sporting News

Xander Schauffele just earned his first major win at the 2024 PGA Championship. Can he build on his excellent 2024 season with a win at the U.S. Open?

Schauffele will look to become a back-to-back major winner as the golf world heads to North Carolina to compete on Pinehurst Resort’s famed No. 2 course.

Despite Schauffele’s strong recent run, Scottie Scheffler remains the prohibitive favorite to win the event. He is coming off a win at The Memorial Tournament, proving once again that few golfers can conquer courses the way the World No. 1 golfer can.

Elsewhere, Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa will look to emerge as worthwhile challengers at Pinehurst, and LIV Golf stars Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka will attempt to earn their tour its first major win of the 2024 season.

Who will take home the U.S. Open trophy in 2024? The Sporting News breaks down the odds and best bets to win golf’s third major.

U.S. Open odds 2024

Scottie Scheffler (+350) is favored to win the 2024 U.S. Open, according to odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. This shouldn’t surprise anyone, as the World No. 1 golfer was favored entering both the Masters (which he won) and the PGA Championship (where he finished tied for eighth). He also has six wins on the season, including one at The Memorial Tournament last week on a difficult course.

Rory McIlroy (+1000) is expected to be Scheffler’s top challenger. McIlroy hasn’t missed a cut this season and has three top-five finishes in his past seven events. That includes a win at the Wells Fargo Championship, so he should have a chance to compete for a win at the long, difficult Pinehurst No. 2 course.

PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele (+1200), reigning PGA Tour champion Viktor Hovland (+1600), and Swedish wunderkind Ludvig Aberg (+1800) represent the other top PGA Tour golfers at the U.S. Open. Jon Rahm (+1600)Brooks Koepka (+2000), and Bryson DeChambeau (+2000) are the top championship contenders from LIV Golf.

Reigning U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark (+3300) is viewed as a potential contender for the event as well. Meanwhile, both Tiger Woods (+15000) and Phil Mickelson (+25000) are playing, but neither is expected to make a legitimate run at another major title at this event.

Below are the odds for the top golfers in this year’s U.S. Open. Only competitors with odds of 100-1 or better odds to win the tournament are listed.

Golfer Odds
Scottie Scheffler +350
Rory McIlroy +1000
Xander Schauffele +1200
Jon Rahm +1600
Viktor Hovland +1600
Ludvig Aberg +1800
Brooks Koepka +2000
Bryson DeChambeau +2000
Collin Morikawa +2000
Patrick Cantlay +2500
Cameron Smith +2800
Max Homa +2800
Hideki Matsuyama +3300
Jordan Spieth +3300
Justin Thomas +3300
Tony Finau +3300
Wyndham Clark +3300
Cameron Young +4000
Matt Fitzpatrick +4000
Tommy Fleetwood +4000
Will Zalatoris +4000
Sahith Theegala +4500
Shane Lowry +4500
Tyrrell Hatton +4500
Dustin Johnson +5000
Jason Day +5000
Sam Burns +5000
Tom Kim +5000
Corey Conners +6600
Min Woo Lee +6600
Rickie Fowler +6600
Alex Noren +8000
Brian Harman +8000
Justin Rose +8000
Keegan Bradley +8000
Russell Henley +8000
Byeong Hun An +10000
Harris English +10000
Si Woo Kim +10000
Sungjae Im +10000
Thomas Detry +10000
Tom Hoge +10000
Dean Burmester +10000
Sepp Straka +10000

U.S. Open course breakdown: Pinehurst No. 2

The U.S. Open will be played in Pinehurst, N.C. at the Pinehurst Resort’s No. 2 golf course. Pinehurst No. 2 is consistently rated as one of the best and toughest courses in the country, making it an ideal choice to host the U.S. Open.

Pinehurst No. 2 was originally designed by former golfer and course architect Donald J. Ross. It has been renovated twice — most recently in 2010 by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw — and currently plays to a length of 7,540 yards. The course is typically a par-72 layout, but it will be a par-70 layout for the 2024 U.S. Open, as two Par-5 holes have been converted into Par 4s for the tournament.

Naturally, the length of Pinehurst will make bettors gravitate toward the tour’s best drivers and ball strikers. That will make strokes gained off the tee (SG:OTT) particularly important to monitor, as those who consistently hit the fairway and get distance will have an advantage on this course.

Accuracy and shot control will also be important, as Pinehurst doesn’t have typical rough lining its sides. Instead, it has dry, sandy patches dotted with collections of native plants that create uniquely difficult shots for those who miss the fairway. That means driving accuracy and good drive percentage will be stats worth watching.

As always, strokes gained on approach (SG:APP) will be critical, as players who consistently hit greens in regulation (GIR) will have an advantage over those who have to scramble or make sand saves on a course with 117 bunkers. That will make sand save percentage almost as important as strokes gained around the green (SG:ARG) given the prevalence of those bunkers.

Finally, it’s always important to keep an eye on strokes gained putting (SG:Putting). Players who enter majors doing well with the short stick tend to have a better chance to compete on tough golf courses than those struggling on the green. That often is the make-or-break difference between a major winner and a top-10 finisher.

U.S. Open expert picks

U.S. Open best bets to win tournament

Scottie Scheffler (+350) could certainly win the U.S. Open, but it’s hard to blame anyone for wanting to avoid his uber-short odds to win it all. That’s what makes Rory McIlroy (+1000) the most appealing bet among the favorites to win it all.

McIlroy has the requisite length needed to take advantage of Pinehurst and shorten the course while also sporting a top-20 approach game and is a top-50 putter. He can be erratic and inaccurate at times, but if he remains consistent and accurate throughout the week, he should fare well. It’s also worth noting that McIlroy has enjoyed success golfing in North Carolina — he earned his fourth PGA Tour win at Quail Hollow in Charlotte earlier this year — so that could give him an edge, even on a much different-looking course.

Elsewhere, Xander Schauffele (+1200) is playing some of the best golf on the PGA Tour right now, so backing him here seems like a solid bet. Sure, winning back-to-back majors isn’t easy, but Schauffele’s shot control, accuracy, and ability to gain strokes from tee to green — he ranks top 10 in both SG:OTT and SG:APP — makes him a safe, appealing player to back here.

U.S. Open value picks for top-10 finish, DFS lineups

Scheffler and Schauffele have captured a lot of attention on the PGA Tour lately, but Collin Morikawa (+2000) is also showing great form. He has finished top five in five of his past six events but hasn’t yet won during the 2024 PGA Tour season.

Morikawa is one of the more accurate drivers on the circuit thanks to his consistent power fade, so he should be able to control his shot and avoid the troublesome, sandy rough at Pinehurst. He challenged Scheffler at The Memorial Tournament last week — finishing second despite a strong comeback effort on the tournament’s final day — so he should be in the running to do the same at Pinehurst, especially if he can remain hot with his putter.

Those looking for a bit more value may want to look into Hideki Matsuyama (+3300) as a value pick. The 2021 Masters champion has a rock-solid tee-to-green game, but his best skill comes as a scrambler. He ranks No. 1 on the PGA Tour in SG:ARG, so even if he isn’t accurate on approach, he should be able to get up and down easily and get some hole-outs from off the green.

Matsuyama’s biggest weakness is his putter, but we’ve seen him perform well with it often throughout his career. If he can get hot at Pinehurst, that should be enough to thrust him into contention.

U.S. Open sleeper picks

Alex Noren (+8000) has been one of the most consistent golfers on the PGA Tour this season. He has missed just one cut this season and has finished worse than 26th just twice in his 14 starts. He doesn’t have many weaknesses in his game and ranks top 10 in good drive percentage, GIR percentage, SG:ARG, and sand save percentage.

Will that give Noren enough to compete with the top talents at the U.S. Open? Maybe not, but if he can perform as steadily at Pinehurst as he has all season, that should give him another shot at a top-20 finish on a difficult course.

Russell Henley (+8000) is another great sleeper option. He routinely is among the most accurate drivers in golf, ranking seventh on the PGA Tour in that category this season. Henley is also a strong putter and ranks No. 1 in sand save percentage, so he has the tee-to-green ability needed to contender at this major — even if he lacks the distance needed to shorten the course.

U.S. Open winners by year

Wyndham Clark is the reigning U.S. Open champion. He shot 10-under par at the Los Angeles Country Club in 2024 to earn his first career major win over Rory McIlroy (9 under) and Scottie Scheffler (7 under).

Clark is now seeking to become the sixth player to win the U.S. Open in consecutive seasons over the past 100 years. Brooks Koepka (2017-18), Curtis Strange (1988-89), Ben Hogan (1950-51), Ralph Guldahl (1937-38), and Bobby Jones (1929-30) are the only others who have achieved that feat since the tournament switched to stroke play in 1930.

Tiger Woods has the most U.S. Open wins among still-active golfers with three. If he can pull off an improbable win at Pinehurst, he would tie the record for most U.S. Open titles of all time, joining Willie Anderson, Bobby Jones, Ben Hogan, and Jack Nicklaus.

Below is a full list of the winners of the U.S. Open since it was first held in 1895.

Year Winner Score
2023 Wyndham Clark -10
2022 Matt Fitzpatrick -6
2021 Jon Rahm -6
2020 Bryson DeChambeau -6
2019 Gary Woodland -13
2018 Brooks Koepka +1
2017 Brooks Koepka -16
2016 Dustin Johnson -4
2015 Jordan Spieth -5
2014 Martin Kaymer -9
2013 Justin Rose +1
2012 Webb Simpson +1
2011 Rory McIlroy -16
2010 Graeme McDowell E
2009 Lucas Glover -4
2008 Tiger Woods -1
2007 Ángel Cabrera +5
2006 Geoff Ogilvy +5
2005 Michael Campbell E
2004 Retief Goosen -4
2003 Jim Furyk -8
2002 Tiger Woods -3
2001 Retief Goosen -4
2000 Tiger Woods -12
1999 Payne Stewart -1
1998 Lee Janzen E
1997 Ernie Els -4
1996 Steve Jones -2
1995 Corey Pavin. E
1994 Ernie Els -5
1993 Lee Janzen -8
1992 Tom Kite -3
1991 Payne Stewart -6
1990 Hale Irwin -8
1989 Curtis Strange -2
1988 Curtis Strange -6
1987 Scott Simpson -3
1986 Raymond Floyd -1
1985 Andy North -1
1984 Fuzzy Zoeller -4
1983 Larry Nelson -4
1982 Tom Watson -6
1981 David Graham -7
1980 Jack Nicklaus -8
1979 Hale Irwin E
1978 Andy North +1
1977 Hubert Green -2
1976 Jerry Pate -3
1975 Lou Graham +3
1974 Hale Irwin +7
1973 Johnny Miller -5
1972 Jack Nicklaus +2
1971 Lee Trevino E
1970 Tony Jacklin -7
1969 Orville Moody +1
1968 Lee Trevino -5
1967 Jack Nicklaus -5
1966 Billy Casper -2
1965 Gary Player +2
1964 Ken Venturi -2
1963 Julius Boros +9
1962 Jack Nicklaus -1
1961 Gene Littler +1
1960 Arnold Palmer -4
1959 Billy Casper +2
1958 Tommy Bolt +3
1957 Dick Mayer +2
1956 Cary Middlecoff +1
1955 Jack Fleck +7
1954 Ed Furgol +4
1953 Ben Hogan -5
1952 Julius Boros +1
1951 Ben Hogan +7
1950 Ben Hogan +7
1949 Cary Middlecoff +2
1948 Ben Hogan -8
1947 Lew Worsham -2
1946 Lloyd Mangrum -4
1941 Craig Wood +4
1940 Lawson Little -1
1939 Byron Nelson -4
1938 Ralph Guldahl E
1937 Ralph Guldahl +1
1936 Tony Manero -2
1935 Sam Parks, Jr. +11
1934 Olin Dutra +13
1933 Johnny Goodman -1
1932 Gene Sarazen +2
1931 Billy Burke +4
1930 Bobby Jones -1
1929 Bobby Jones 294
1928 Johnny Farrell 294
1927 Tommy Armour 301
1926 Bobby Jones 293
1925 Willie Macfarlane 291
1924 Cyril Walker 297
1923 Bobby Jones 296
1922 Gene Sarazen 288
1921 Jim Barnes 289
1920 Ted Ray 295
1919 Walter Hagen 301
1916 Chick Evans 286
1915 Jerome Travers 297
1914 Walter Hagen 290
1913 Francis Ouimet 304
1912 John McDermott 294
1911 John McDermott 307
1910 Alex Smith 298
1909 George Sargent 290
1908 Fred McLeod 322
1907 Alec Ross 302
1906 Alex Smith 295
1905 Willie Anderson 314
1904 Willie Anderson 303
1903 Willie Anderson 307
1902 Laurie Auchterlonie 307
1901 Willie Anderson 331
1900 Harry Vardon 313
1899 Willie Smith 315
1898 Fred Herd 328
1897 Joe Lloyd 162
1896 James Foulis 152
1895 Horace Rawlins 173