The attack came in the early hours of Friday morning, about 15 miles northeast of the Kharkiv city ring road.
But neither the time nor the place were a surprise.
For weeks, Ukrainian officials had been warning of a new Russian offensive some time in May. Russian propagandists, Ukrainian military analysts, and even armchair observers publicly predicted an assault on Kharkiv.
We even knew the units involved.
Last week the Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS), a Ukrainian defence think tank, forecast Russian “tactical raids in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts involving elements of the 11th and 44th Army Corps and possibly the 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Army”.
But what is the intention of the Russian offensive? And is this the main effort, or a diversion?
Russia’s new offensive was first reported on Friday, when the Ukrainian military said it had engaged a Russian “diversionary reconnaissance group”, Soviet military jargon for a commando raid, trying to cross the border northeast of Kharkiv.
By Monday morning the Russians had developed two salients, each a few miles deep: one towards the town of Vovchansk and another towards the village of Lypstsi.
But so far, they have not got much further.
The Telegraph’s Colin Freeman, who is in eastern Ukraine and reported from the battle of Vovchansk as the Russians closed in over the weekend, said on Wednesday evening that the eastern attack still seemed to be stuck on the outskirts of the town.
The western advance – on the Russians’ right and the Ukrainians’ left – appears to be stalled well short of the village of Lypstsi, with fighting ongoing for the village of Hlyboke.
The new salients are tiny, but three miles in three days is a more rapid rate of advance than either Russia or Ukraine has achieved in the best part of a year.
Residential buildings in Vovchansk were heavily damaged by Russian shelling ahead of their advance in the region
Credit: Simon Townsley for The Telegraph
![A destroyed Russian T-80 tank in Bogorodychne, in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/eip/particles/gen/2024/05/15/a3d61af3-fc18-4672-8dfc-54dae2f892e8.jpg?imwidth=350)
A destroyed Russian T-80 tank in Bogorodychne, in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.
Credit: Getty Images
![A veteran of the fighting in the east stands at the flag monument to the war dead near Maidan Square in Kyiv](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/eip/particles/gen/2024/05/16/58ad2d64-58de-44a8-a868-f1e689a63b37.jpg?imwidth=350)
A veteran of the fighting in the east stands at the flag monument to the war dead near Maidan Square in Kyiv
Credit: Simon Townsley for The Telegraph
![A russian drone](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/eip/particles/gen/2024/05/15/8976eb50-d0cd-4012-87cb-880bd4f532a3.jpg?imwidth=350)
A Russian military drone carrying bombs on a training exercise in Russia
Credit: Russian Defence Ministry
![A woman attends to the grave of her son in Kharkiv, Ukraine.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/eip/particles/gen/2024/05/16/5efa577d-d2fd-4db8-b439-0a09474a479e.jpg?imwidth=350)
Medics attend to an injured Ukrainian infantryman
Credit: Simon Townsley for The Telegraph