Home » NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds: Is the award Caleb Williams’ to lose?

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds: Is the award Caleb Williams’ to lose?

The 2024 NFL Draft has wrapped up, so it’s time to start making predictions for the 2024/25 NFL season. Part of that process includes evaluating potential award winners. This timely discussion includes conversing about the AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award following the draft’s conclusion.

Early returns show that bettors are falling in love with the Chicago Bears this offseason. The Bears are the most-bet team to win Super Bowl LIX at Fanatics Sportsbook. Further, the franchise’s new face, Caleb Williams, is the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at FanDuel. Is the award his to lose, though?

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Caleb Williams is the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite

Many assume a quarterback will run away with this award, as Houston Texans signal-caller C.J. Stroud did last year. However, unlike the NFL MVP Award — which has seen 20 quarterbacks win in the previous 23 tries — the Offensive Rookie of the Year voters diversify the winners.

Stroud was just the 10th quarterback to be honored as the best offensive rookie since the turn of the century. The award has been won by nine running backs and five wide receivers during that span. This means quarterbacks are winning the award at just a 41.67% clip since 2000.

Williams’ odds (+210) do not represent enough value to justify betting at a 32.26% implied probability, regardless of team projections. After all, Bijan Robinson was the runaway favorite to win last year’s award at +300, and he finished fifth after an underwhelming year.

Players like J.J. McCarthy (+1000), Keon Coleman (+2100) and Brian Thomas Jr. (+3000) are intriguing given their lines. Each represents a highly touted prospect joining a playoff-ready team who could contribute right away. Jayden Daniels (+900) is an even better value pick than Williams too. He may not have as many weapons to work with on offense, but Daniels’ big-play ability in Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme makes for an exciting combination.

One doesn’t need to look back far to find the last time quarterbacks won the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award in back-to-back seasons: Kyler Murray of the Cardinals and Justin Herbert of the Chargers won in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Could a second consecutive No. 2 overall pick take home the trophy?

Trying to predict awards before rookie minicamp even begins is a crapshoot, but I’ll always try to find value before betting on the chalk favorite at slightly better than 2/1 odds.

Let’s dive into the odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of April 30, 2024:

2024/25 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds

Chicago QB Caleb Williams (+210)

Arizona WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (+600)

Washington QB Jayden Daniels (+900)

Minnesota QB J.J. McCarthy (+1000)

New York Giants WR Malik Nabers (+1400)

New England QB Drake Maye (+1500)

Kansas City WR Xavier Worthy (+1600)

Buffalo WR Keon Coleman (+2100)

Denver QB Bo Nix (+2100)

Chicago WR Rome Odunze (+2500)

Los Angeles Chargers WR Ladd McConkey (+2900)

Jacksonville WR Brian Thomas Jr. (+3000)

Carolina RB Jonathon Brooks (+3400)

Las Vegas TE Brock Bowers (+4000)

Indianapolis WR Adonai Mitchell (+4000)

San Francisco WR Ricky Pearsall (+4000)

Miami RB Jaylen Wright (+4000)

Arizona RB Trey Benson (+5000)

Carolina WR Xavier Legette (+5000)

Cincinnati WR Jermaine Burton (+6000)

Atlanta QB Michael Penix Jr. (+6000)

New England WR Ja’Lynn Polk (+6000)

New York Jets WR Malachi Corley (+7500)

Pittsburgh WR Roman Wilson (+7500)

Los Angeles Rams RB Blake Corum (+8000)

Green Bay RB MarShawn Lloyd (+8000)

New Orleans QB Spencer Rattler (+8000)

New England WR Javon Baker (+10000)

Buffalo RB Ray Davis (+10000)

Denver RB Audric Estime (+10000)

Denver WR Troy Franklin (+10000)

San Francisco RB Isaac Guerendo (+10000)

Tennessee RB Dillon Johnson (+10000)

Tampa Bay WR Jalen McMillan (+10000)

Carolina TE Ja’Tavion Sanders (+10000)

Baltimore WR Tez Walker (+10000)

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