Home » Leeds United vs Southampton prediction: Which club will earn Premier League promotion?

Leeds United vs Southampton prediction: Which club will earn Premier League promotion?

Leeds United and Southampton will meet in Sunday’s EFL Championship Playoff final. The two familiar clubs will square off for a chance to be promoted back into the Premier League just one year after dropping into England’s second division.

The financial ramifications of this match are almost unimaginable, which is why this annual contest is often dubbed football’s richest game. The two sides will meet at Wembley Stadium in London, England for a 9 a.m. CT kickoff. ESPN+ will carry the United States coverage of the highly anticipated contest. 

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EFL Championship playoff final prediction and preview

Leeds United has seen its form dip in the weeks following Leicester City and Ipswich Town securing automatic promotion. The Whites have won just two matches over the last two months. Luckily, one was a 4-0 win over Norwich City in the second leg of the promotion playoff semifinals.

Southampton is in a similar boat, but its drop-off hasn’t been as drastic as of late. The Saints have won five matches in the same span, including a 2-1 over Leeds United on the final day of the Championship campaign. Russell Martin’s squad is potent in front of goal, which it proved throughout the season with the third-most goals in the league.

Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:

Leeds United vs. Southampton

Time/TV: Sunday, May 26 at 9 a.m. CT (ESPN+)

Location: Wembley Stadium in London, England

Moneyline*: Leeds United +130 | Draw +220 | Southampton +210

To Be Promoted: Leeds United -150 | Southampton +122

*- Moneyline odds based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time

Analysis: These two teams are stacked with Premier League talent — no surprise considering they were only relegated last year after multi-year stints in the English top flight. Similar to the past two seasons, there is little to separate the two squads.

Both teams possess 20+ goal scorers: Southampton’s Adam Armstrong (23 goals) and Leeds United’s Crysencio Summerville (20 goals). They also have players with double-digit assists in Georginio Rutter (16 assists) and Armstrong (13).

Thus, the key could be supporting casts. Keep an eye on players like Che Adams, David Brooks, Ryan Fraser, Will Smallbone and Kyle Walker-Peters for Southampton. Similarly, Junior Firpo, Ilia Gruev, Wilfried Gnonto and Joel Piroe will look to have an impact throughout the match for Leeds United.

The Saints have dominated this fixture recently. The Whites have beaten Southampton just once in the last six tries, and they’re winless in both attempts this season. Despite trends between the teams in the tie and recent form, oddsmakers give Leeds United a 60% implied probability of being promoted. This is likely because of the man in the Whites’ dugout.

Daniel Farke is a promotion specialist as he’s led Norwich City to the promised land numerous times. Now, the former Borussia Monchengladbach manager will be tasked with bringing Leeds United back to the first division just 12 months after it suffered relegation.

These teams each have their unique advantages in those one-off contest. The Whites have the more experienced manager while the Saints have the better attack. This is truly one of the most even promotion matches in recent years. I’ll pick Leeds United to win on penalties after 120 minutes of inseparable play.

Prediction: Leeds United 2-2 Southampton (Leeds United wins on penalties)

Best bet: Adam Armstrong anytime goalscorer (+220 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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