The Kentucky Derby will be run for the 150th time this Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.

Fierceness has been installed as the 5-2 morning line favorite to take home the $3.1 million first-place purse. But that might not be a good thing. Since 2000, just 30.4% of morning line odds favorites (7 of 23) have won the Run for the Roses.

In the past two decades, four horses have won the Derby with odds of 50-1 or higher, including 81-1 Rich Strike in 2022.

As trainer Ken McPeek said earlier this year: “The Derby is always wide open. It’s wide open the morning of the race.”

New Orleans is home to some of the top horse racing experts in the nation. I’ve asked some of them to handicap the race. This year’s lineup is excellent, as always.

Without further ado, Tom Amoss, Michael Beychok, Patrick McGoey, Tim Rice and Chad Schexnayder offer their analysis and selections for the 150th Kentucky Derby, which will run Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.

Tom Amoss’s analysis and selections

Horse racing has a handicapping adage that has stood the test of time: Pace makes the race. In layman’s terms, the quicker the horses run early in the race, the better chance the closers have to make an impact at the wire. They have conserved their energy until the last part of the race. The opposite is true if the pace is slow early. In handicapping this year’s Derby, I not only see a fast pace early, but a scenario that will hurt the chances of the favorite, Fierceness. My selections are based on this pace scenario playing out.

1. Sierra Leone (3-1): Winner in three out of four starts and a horse that enjoys laying back and making a late run, he will laugh all the way to the bank and give trainer Chad Brown his first Derby victory.

2. Forever Young (11-1): This Japanese superstar is “the joker in the deck.” Undefeated in six starts but has never run in the United States. He trains in an unconventional manner and is hard to read since coming to Churchill Downs last week.

3 Just a Touch (10-1): No Derby trifecta is complete without a long shot. This Brad Cox trainee is lightly raced but has improved with every start. To my eye, he has looked the best in his daily morning workouts since coming to Churchill Downs

Long shot play: Catching Freedom (8-1): When trainers talk about presence, they’re talking about a horse that stands out in overall appearance and has fluid motion on the racetrack. Catching Freedom , the winner of The La, Derby fits the bill.

(Tom Amoss is one of the leading thoroughbred trainers in North America. The New Orleans native is also a longtime racing analyst at Fox Sports.)

Michael Beychok’s analysis and selections

My top choice has run third the past two years, so a show bet this year on my top choice may be the smart play. This year’s Derby features six horses that ran at the Fair Grounds this meet and one could be the favorite – Sierra Leone. As usual on big races days, I’m trying to locate a betting favorite that may underperform and isolate plays on live longshots. This year’s race offers many opportunities for both options, so let’s get to the picks.

1. Forever Young (10-1): Forever Young was not one of the six horses that ran at this Fair Grounds meet, and in fact, he has not run in the United States. Hailing from Japan and an undefeated stakes winner in Japan and in the Middle East, this horse possesses the late closing kick I believe will be needed to win this year’s edition of the Kentucky Derby.

2. Domestic Product (30-1): This selection could be a reach, because Domestic Product must improve to win the race, but he has the closing kick and best jockey (Irad Ortiz) on board to provide the glimmer of hope for a big longshot trained by Chad Brown who also trains our below selection.

3. Sierra Leone (3-1): The Risen Star and Blue Grass stakes winner is a likely winner of the race, albeit at short odds. Sierra Leone needs a fast pace to set up his strong closing kick, and he will likely get just what he wants, but will have to work out a trip from the back of the field.

Long shot: Resilience (20-1): The Wood Memorial was not among the speediest of final Derby preps, but this guy won it easily and left the impression that he could have done more if asked. We will bet him across the board and in exotic boxes.

(Michael Beychok is a senior partner of Ourso Beychok Inc., an award-winning national political consulting firm based in Louisiana, and the 2012 National Handicapping Championship and 2012 Eclipse Award winner for best handicapper.)

Patrick McGoey’s analysis and selections

Here’s how I see this year’s race:

1. Fierceness (5-2): Last year Fierceness ran the fastest 2-year-old race, when he won the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and this year he ran the fastest Derby prep race when he won the Florida Derby with a 110 Beyer Speed Figure. The next fastest Beyer Speed Figure in this race is a 98 by Sierra Leone. So, Fierceness is the fastest horse in the race, by a lot. I love how focused he has looked in his recent works, and how he has separated from his workmates. I like his outside post. I think if he breaks clean, he will sit off the speed, take over at the top of the lane, and hold off the late closers.

2. Sierra Leone (3-1): I think Fierceness will dominate the front runners, so I am looking for closers to complete the exacta and trifecta. Sierra Leone has had two very visually impressive closing moves in the Risen Star and Blue Grass, on tracks that I thought did not favor closers. His moves remind me of Animal Kingdom in 2011. He will get a ground saving trip from the No. 2 hole, and I think he will come with a big run. His owners are as sharp as they come, and they paid $2.3 million dollars for him. If he wins this race, they will make a nice return on their investment.

3. Catching Freedom (8-1): Like Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom will be coming from the back. His Louisiana Derby performance was really good, as he went from last to first in the final half-mile. He should improve with the added 1/16th of a mile. He is working much better than he did at the Fair Grounds, and his jockey, Flavien Prat is a difference maker. If the pace of the race heats up, he can save some ground into the first turn, and then weave through tiring horses in the lane, I think he will hit the board.

Long shot play: Just a Touch (10-1): While he is light on experience, he is out of Justify and can certainly get the 1 ¼-mile distance. He held on for second in the Blue Grass, despite the hot early pace. I look for him to be forward in the race, but not on the lead. If the leaders tire, and he runs a triple digit Beyer speed figure like Justify did in the Derby, he could inherit the lead and hold of the closers.

(Patrick McGoey is a commercial litigator from New Orleans and won the 2011 & 2012 Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge and 2018 Kentucky Derby Betting Challenge.)

Tim Rice’s analysis and selections

This year’s Derby has a balance of speed horses, stalkers and closers that provides a multitude of handicapping challenges and opportunities. Add to that the intrigue of two Japanese-bred colts. I always look for opportunity in the low double-digit odds area, where I try to find a candidate with a plausible pedigree where a reasonable forward move from recent performance could produce a win. This contrasts with what I see from inexperienced horse players who bet the horse with the best last race. I am a bit suspect of Fierceness who is capable of winning handily but also of not showing up.

1. Forever Young (10-1): Obviously I learned nothing from my pick last year of Derma Sotogake, who finished sixth. I am again choosing a Japanese-bred winner of the UAE Derby. His pedigree is chock full of classic U.S. influences, he’s a perfect 5 for 5 in his career. His trainer has won two Breeders Cup races, which allays any fears of shipping and adjustment mishaps. He is from the direct Sunday Silence sire line and his dam is from the same family as Sierra Leone.

2. Sierra Leone (3-1): The probable second pick looked like the goods in the Blue Grass, after delaying the start by refusing to load. From the emergent prepotent sire, Gun Runner, his only slipup has been a nose loss to Dornoch in the Remsen after closing from last to take the lead in deep stretch. Another blue-chip trainer-jock pairing in Cox and Tyler Gaffalione.

3. Resilience (20-1): I like his improving pattern, capped by his win in the Wood Memorial. It was not a fast race, but he did it easily, after finishing fourth in the Risen Star in his first race against winners. 

Chad Schexnayder’s analysis and selections

This Derby promises to have plenty of local Cajun flare. Six of the 20 entrants have some connection to the 2023-2024 Fair Grounds meet, including the winners of the track’s premier Derby prep races: Track Phantom; Sierra Leone; and Catching Freedom. Most analysts believe the race goes through Fierceness. The 2-year-old juvenile champion owns the fastest speed figures in the field but will have to win while breaking from the No. 17 post position, an inauspicious spot that carries an 0-for-44 record in the Kentucky Derby.

1. Catching Freedom (8-1): The Louisiana Derby winner, trained by Brad Cox, has the profile of a horse who is just thriving going into the first Saturday in May. There’s a lot of positives in his favor. He has overcome adversity to win in a full field. He owns a win over the Churchill Downs surface. And jockey Flavien Prat has proven to ride the Kentucky Derby very well in recent years. Hoping his price floats up to double digits on Saturday.

2. Fierceness (3-1): I believe Fierceness will either win this race in dominant fashion, or he will be off the board completely. If things go his way, he may be on his way to a serious Triple Crown run. I will not bet any money on him to win because I anticipate his price going down to the 2-1 range for the race. If you like him the value is to play exactas with him on top of a group of price horses for second.

3. Just a Touch (10-1): Another Brad Cox runner who broke his maiden at first asking at Fair Grounds in January. The son of Triple Crown winner Justify earned his way into the race with an impressive second place finish behind Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland last out. His front running style should give him a tactical advantage in this race and I wouldn’t be surprised if he turns for home in the Kentucky Derby with the lead.

Longshot play: Stronghold (20-1): Admittedly this horse will be on top of a lot of my tickets. The California Santa Anita Derby winner will be forgotten in large part because his trainer isn’t Bob Baffert. But trainer Phil D’Amato has campaigned the son of Ghostzapper brilliantly never missing the exacta in six starts. He’s a horse who likes a fight but is light on the “experts” speed numbers which is why his price will be very intriguing.

(Chad Schexnayder is the former publicity director at the Fair Grounds, the host of the Fair Grounds Racing podcast and a regular National Handicapping Tour participant.)