Home » Euro 2024 picks: Bet this 100-1 long shot

Euro 2024 picks: Bet this 100-1 long shot

The 2024 UEFA European Championship kicks off on Friday. Germany and Scotland get the tournament underway from Munich. This means one of the odds-on favorites is on display from the jump, so it’s important to get future bets in before kickoff at the end of the week.

Favorites like England, France and Germany will get a lot of attention, especially considering there are five countries with 10/1 odds or shorter. However, it’s important to take a look at the underdogs, as well, which is why we have identified our favorite long-shot pick at 100/1 odds.

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Hungary represents great value at 100/1 to win Euro 2024

While a 100/1 winner may sound crazy, it wouldn’t be the biggest underdog story in the history of the European Championships. Greece famously conquered the 2004 Euros as a 150/1 long shot. Other notable teams who were initially counted out by oddsmakers include 1992 Denmark (20/1 to win an eight-team tournament) and 2016 Iceland (14/1 to beat England in the knockout stages).

You’d be hard-pressed to find a better value than Hungary, which has +10000 odds to win the 2024 Euros at FanDuel Sportsbook. The Magyarok’s odds have gotten longer as the tournament inches closer. They opened up at 85/1 on Monday before the market saw them move to 100/1, providing even more bang for your buck than originally anticipated.

For what it’s worth, Hungary was my long-shot pick before the line shifted in our favor. Now, only eight of the tournament’s 24 teams have longer odds. Marco Rossi’s team sticks out like a sore thumb — for all of the right reasons — when compared to the other nations around them on the odds board.

For starters, the Magyaroks have lost just once in their last 12 competitive matches dating back to the beginning of 2023. They’ve compiled a record of seven wins, four draws and one loss in that span with the lone defeat coming to Ireland in a friendly last week.

Hungary’s unbeaten streak lasted from November 2022 to June 2024. The argument could be made that the competition it faced wasn’t the fiercest in that span, but wins over Serbia and Turkey boosted that résumé.

Rossi’s squad wasn’t drawn into the toughest group at the Euros either.

The June 19 game against Germany in Stuttgart is as tough as it gets. However, Switzerland (No. 19 in FIFA World Rankings) and Scotland (No. 39) are winnable fixtures. These are seemingly must-win matches, starting with Switzerland on Matchday 1, which is Saturday.

The Magyaroks have -130 odds at FanDuel to get out of the group, which gives them an implied probability of 56.52% seeing as four third-place finishers reach the Round of 16. These are the third-best odds in Group A behind Germany (-6000) and Switzerland (-280).

A third-place finish with a positive goal differential could be the best way forward in the knockout stages for a team like Hungary.

This spot matches up with the winner of either Group E or Group F, which are two of the weaker groups. Meanwhile, a second-place finish sees the Group A runner-up paired up with the second-place finisher in Group B (Albania, Croatia, Italy or Spain), which provides a tough test in the Round of 16.

The goal for Hungary will be to simply reach the knockout stages, where history tells us that anything can happen. Rossi has enough talent at his disposal — headlined by players like Liverpool’s Dominik Szoboslzlai, Bournemouth’s Milos Kerkez and Freiburg’s Roland Sallai — to make a Cinderella run at this event.

100/1 odds on the Magyaroks translate to a 0.99% implied probability of winning this competition. Given the form Hungary is in, I believe they are undervalued here and represent an excellent long-shot play.

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