Aston Villa vs Chelsea betting tips

A win in this match would be huge for Aston Villa. If they can defeat Chelsea on Saturday evening (8pm, TNT Sports 1), they will move nine points clear of Tottenham in the race for Champions League qualification. 

Granted, Spurs will then have three games in hand. But as they still have to play the three teams in the title race, it is hugely unlikely they will collect maximum points from those matches. 

Football betting sites already have Villa as odds-on to claim a top four finish and the price will only shrink if they collect three points here. 

The problem they have is that it’s impossible to know what to expect from Chelsea fresh off a drubbing at Arsenal.

Aston Villa vs Chelsea prediction: Villans to cash in 

There won’t be many instances of a team winning one league game 6-0 before losing the next 5-0, but that’s exactly what Chelsea have done in the last two weeks.  

Everton and Arsenal offer very different standards of opposition, in fairness. Yet in their last four matches, Mauricio Pochettino’s side also ran Manchester City close in an FA Cup semi-final but were fortunate – at least on the balance of chances – to draw at bottom side Sheffield United. 

Like that other great underperforming side of the English football, Manchester United, Chelsea are near-impossible to predict.  

What we can take from the head-to-head record of these teams is that it has favoured the away side in recent years. 

Villa might have two wins and two draws from their last four visits to Stamford Bridge, with clean sheets in the last three, but the Blues have triumphed in their last three visits to Villa Park, and in six of the last seven meetings in Birmingham.

Indeed, Chelsea’s 3-1 FA Cup victory at Villa in February was one of their better performances of a hugely inconsistent campaign. But, you simply can’t trust them on the road. 

The Blues have played eight away games against sides who start the weekend in the top 11 in the Premier League table. 

Their return from those fixtures is just four points, with the only win occurring at Tottenham after Spurs had gone down to nine men. Hell, Everton have as many away points as Chelsea and they lost 6-0 at their ground last week. 

While Aston Villa have had problems at home against sides just outside the top four, with Tottenham, Newcastle and Manchester United all winning at Villa Park, they have beaten the sides either side of Chelsea 4-1 (West Ham) and 6-1 (Brighton). 

Unai Emery’s side are favourites but the underlying data suggests they should be shorter and may represent a good value selection.  

Aston Villa vs Chelsea prediction 1: Aston Villa to win – 5/4 with BetUK

Aston Villa vs Chelsea tip: Watkins on the mark again

This game will potentially feature a clash of two goal scorers in fantastic form. 

If you look at players from both clubs who have scored more than three goals across the last 10 league games, there are only two: Ollie Watkins and Cole Palmer. The Chelsea man leads 11-8 overall, though it’s 8-7 to the Villa forward if we exclude penalties.

Both players are in with a great shout of ending the campaign with the Golden Boot, with Palmer just behind Erling Haaland in the Premier League odds to claim the award.

However, it is not certain that Palmer will play in this match. He missed the 5-0 thrashing at Arsenal – probably for the best – and while it was only due to illness rather than an injury, the 21-year-old may not be in peak condition on Saturday.  

Watkins should have no such concerns. He’s in decent form at Villa Park, having scored against Ajax, Brentford (twice) and Lille in his previous five games there, with a pair of assists against Bournemouth last time out.  

And he likes Chelsea, having bagged the only goal of the reverse fixture and also opened the scoring in Villa’s win at Stamford Bridge last season. 

Betting apps make him the favourite in the any time goal scorer market, and we agree with their assessment with a best price of 7/5 with William Hill.

Aston Villa vs Chelsea prediction 2: Ollie Watkins to score at any time – 7/5 William Hill

Aston Villa vs Chelsea prediction: Light on cards at Villa Park

Bookmakers are expecting cards galore in this match. The odds imply that there are likelier to be at least seven than there are fewer than five.  

When you look at the teams’ records, this bloodlust makes sense. Chelsea’s matches have averaged 5.3 cards in 2023/24, the most in the Premier League, with 23 of their 32 games paying out on over 4.5 cards. 

At the start of the weekend, the Blues are the only team who’ve had more matches featuring at least five cards than Villa.  

But their meetings at Villa Park since the home side were last promoted have tended to be more sedate. For three of the four, our selection of under 4.5 cards paid out. 

You also have to consider the referee. Our man in black, Craig Pawson, has averaged 3.6 yellows per game across his top flight career, for starters, and he’s below average for the proportion of matches in which he showed over 4.5 cards this season. 

When all around are losing their heads, Pawson keeps his, and keeps his cards in his pocket too.  

Aston Villa vs Chelsea prediction 3: Under 4.5 cards – 17/10 Unibet 

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