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2024 PGA Championship: Experts’ picks and betting tips

The second golf major of the year is here with the 2024 PGA Championship from Valhalla Golf Course in Louisville, where previous winners include Tiger Woods (2000) and Rory McIlroy (2014).

Where is the betting value? Will the favorites prevail? ESPN’s golf and betting experts break down everything thing you need to know to bet the 2024 PGA Championship.

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Experts’ picks to win | Betting roundtable


Experts’ picks

Matt Barrie
Winner
Rory McIlroy: Why? Google “Rory McIlroy 2014 wins.”

Tory Barron
Winner Brooks Koepka: Death, taxes and Brooks Koepka winning the PGA Championship. If you’re still talking about his lackluster Masters performance, you clearly didn’t watch his LIV Golf Tournament win in Singapore. Neither did I, but that’s beside the point. Big Game Brooks is back and ready to join Tiger Woods as the proud owner of four Wanamaker Trophies.

Elizabeth Baugh
Winner — McIlroy: It’s hard to not pick Rory for any major, but especially now when he’s heading into the week coming off a win with his game in such great form. And at Valhalla, the scene of the 2014 win, it just makes sense for him to finish the story.

David Duval
Winner —
Scottie Scheffler: I’ve got to go with the World No. 1. It’s difficult to pick anyone else when he has been so consistently excellent. With that being said, I would let a person pick any one player and then take the field. Tournament golf is incredibly difficult to predict.

Paolo Uggetti
Winner — McIlroy: Look if it’s ever going to happen it’s probably going to look like this: McIlroy, coming off a convincing win, his game peaking just as he is getting the opportunity to play at a place where he’s already won a major before. Sure, it was 10 years ago but it happened, didn’t it? The four-time major winner is an entirely different person now, but in the close calls since and the recent wins at Wells Fargo and the Zurich, there is enough there to believe that the player who won all those majors is still in there waiting, ready to win again.

Peter Lawrence-Riddell
Winner
Xander Schauffele: The right pick would probably be Scottie Scheffler, but we’ll give Schauffele his first major. He’s played well this season despite not winning, finishing T-25 or better in 10 of the 11 events he’s played in, including seven top 10s. He finished T-2 at The Players and eighth at the Masters, so he’s done well in the biggest events.

Andy North
Winner — McIlroy: I like Rory. He’s got some mojo back and he’s won at Valhalla Golf Club. We don’t know how Scheffler is doing.

Mark Schlabach
Winner
— McIlroy: It’s time. He’s won in each of his past two starts–with good friend Shane Lowry at the Zurich Classic team event in New Orleans and last week’s Wells Fargo Championship in Charlotte, North Carolina. Length is needed at Valhalla, and few golfers hit it farther than Rory. The nearly 10-year drought without a major title comes to an end on Sunday.

Curtis Strange
Winner
— Scheffler: I’m going with Scottie. He’s the best in the world.

Scott Van Pelt
Winner
— Schauffele: Xander is so close so often. He played well a week ago in Charlotte, perhaps it was a blessing to not close it out. This weekend, he finally kicks the door down and gets the big trophy. (Unless Scottie wins again, which he might and then I will feel dumb for not just saying his name like I did for the Masters).


Betting roundtable

Odds by ESPN BET

Who is your pick to win?

Tyler Fulghum, ESPN betting analyst
Winner: Ludvig Åberg (+2000)

Why he’ll win: I’m gonna play Åberg to win a major until it happens. I feel this strategy is going to net me profits far sooner than later. He finished 2nd in his Masters debut, which speaks to his insane talent. That is usually a tournament that requires golfers to take their lumps before they content. Valhalla sets up perfectly for his game as it requires long, straight driving of the golf ball. I think his recent WD at Quail Hollow for a knee injury is only giving us better value on his ticket.

David Gordon, ESPN Stats & Information
Winner: Xander Schauffele (14-1)

Why he’ll win: With the top two favorites experiencing some off-the-course challenges, the door is as open as it ever has been for Schauffele, who has yet to reach his full potential in majors. Xander finished 8th at the 2024 Masters with his B-game and he’s the only player with Top-20 finishes in each of the last eight majors. A Top-20 obviously does no good here, but I really believe it’s a matter of “when” not “if” for Xander and this feels like his best chance to date.

Who is your favorite bet to make the top 10?

Rory McIlroy (-115)

Fulghum: McIlroy is in phenomenal form right now. He carried Shane Lowry to a victory at the Zurich team event. He lapped the field last week at Quail Hollow. We thought perhaps dealing with the politics of golf had been weighing on him in recent years but maybe the mental anguish had more to do with his personal life. With a clear head and a lot of confidence from recent results, I think he’s live to win his first major in 10 years…which just so happened to be the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla.

Cameron Smith (+330)

Gordon: Smith has been exceptional in majors dating back to 2022 and has started to figure out how to play well at the PGA Championship. He tied for 13th in 2022 at Southern Hills and tied for 9th last year at Oak Hill, posting career-best PGA finishes in consecutive years. He’s posted Top-10 finishes in three of the last four majors — just as Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy have done — and he’s coming off a runner-up finish to Brooks Koepka in his last start at LIV Singapore.

What is your favorite Tiger Woods bet?

Tiger Woods to miss the cut | Tournament Matchup – Phil Mickelson OVER Woods (-150)

Fulghum: Even as the biggest Tiger STAN (who still thinks it’s possible the old man wins a 16th major), seeing Tiger compete at layouts like the US Open and, now, the PGA Championship is hard to imagine. Though Tiger still has the length off the tee, a major part of competing at a tournament like this is stamina. At Augusta, he can compensate with supreme course knowledge. At an Open Championship, course terrain is far less likely to be prohibitive. When Tiger is teeing it up at a US Open or PGA Championship, I’m going to be betting against him.

To finish in the Top 20 After Round 1 (+350)

Gordon: This isn’t going to be a significant part of the card! Still, it wasn’t too difficult to talk myself into Tiger playing well on Thursday morning before a long rest that could even turn longer if Friday’s play is affected by weather. Tiger has shown flashes of good play over his last five major appearances — all of which have come on Thursdays — with T10 (2022 Masters) and T35 (2024 Masters) 18-hole positions.

Who are your favorite long shots to win?

Dustin Johnson (+7500)

Fulghum: Boy it does not seem like Johnson cares that much about major championship golf after cashing in on a LIV ticket, but seeing him at that price is too tempting. His game, in theory, is a great fit for this course. He’s long and accurate off the tee. I’ll probably regret this, but why not?

Jordan Spieth (+7500)

Gordon: Spieth has shown nothing to suggest he’s contending at this time on Sunday, but I’d rather take a ride on the Spieth rollercoaster with the lowest of expectations than miss out on what would be a historic victory — only five players have ever completed the career grand slam and the last player to do it was Tiger Woods in 2000. Spieth to win the PGA will be a small-unit play for me regardless of the price until he no longer competes.

Are there any other bets that stand out to you?

Rory McIlroy (+110) Top GB + Ireland Golfer

Gordon: I’m all in on this market; he’s -115 to finish in the Top 10 of the tournament but he’s plus money here in which his only real contenders are Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton, and Shane Lowry. Feels like a fun and easy follow as well as some insurance in the event his Top-10 finish gets chopped — any avenue to play Rory at plus money this week is one I’m willing to take.