All eyes are on Churchill Downs as the first leg of the triple crown and the biggest event in horse racing, the 2024 Kentucky Derby, inches closer. The 150th annual Run for the Roses takes place on Saturday, May 4, and there’s still plenty of time to get in on the action.
The 2023 Kentucky Derby saw $188.7 million placed in bets leading up to the event, a record to date. The pinnacle of the sport is one of the most bet competitions in the world each year, and with sports betting only growing in the United States, that’s not expected to change any time soon. Here are some helpful tips and trends to know before placing wagers on the Kentucky Derby.
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How to bet on the 2024 Kentucky Derby
The common misconception about horse racing is that everything is random. As any regular handicapper knows, this isn’t the case. Bettors can use certain factors and historical trends to make smart investments ahead of the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Let’s dive into some of them now.
Firstly, four jockeys in the 20-person field have won at Churchill Downs previously. John Velazquez — jockeying Fierceness — has won the event thrice (2011, 2017 and 2020). Meanwhile, Joel Rosario (Track Phantom), Flavien Prat (Catching Freedom) and Florent Geroux (Just a Touch) won in 2013, 2019 and 2021 respectively.
The latter of the group, Fierceness, is the betting favorite at 5/2. While that reality may be enough to scare some bettors off, chalk has paid off in recent years. Favorites have won at a 55% clip (six of the last 11) since 2013 when Churchill Downs adapted its new qualifying points system.
On the flip side, only two horses (Rich Strike in 2022 and Essential Quality in 2021) have won with pre-race odds greater than 15/1. The former is seen as an anomaly as an 80/1 winner and the latter won as a result of a doping disqualification. Therefore, it’s risky to side with any horse with +1500 odds or greater, although it does occasionally pay off.
Horses starting between Post 5 and Post 10 have fared well at Churchill Downs. Those two posts have produced more winners than any others in the past with over 10% each. Post 8 is the only other starting position that sees more than 10% of its horses take home the victory, including last year when Mage started there. Horses taking off between those gates also tend to finish in the money, so that’s one trend to certainly keep in mind heading into the event.
Another interesting historical fact is that 29 of the past 40 Kentucky Derby winners won a prep race earlier in the year. Fierceness (Florida Derby in March), Sierra Leone (Blue Grass), Stronghold (Santa Anita Derby), Resilience (Wood Memorial) and Encino (Lexington) are the qualifiers for that trend from the current field.
107 previous winners of the Kentucky Derby have been Bay or Chestnut-colored horses. Sierra Leone, Catalytic, Honor Marie, Encino, T O Password, West Saratoga, Domestic Product and Grand Mo the First are the horses that do not fit this pattern.
Further, and lastly, 76% of Run for the Roses winners were bred inside the state of Kentucky. Only six winners didn’t come from the United States with three being bred in Canada, two in the United Kingdom and one in Venezuela. T O Password and Forever Young are the only two competing horses born outside of Kentucky with both being bred in Japan.
Fierceness is the betting favorite at 5/2. Sierra Leone (+300), Catching Freedom (+800), Just a Touch (+1000) and Forever Young (+1000) are the only other horses with 10/1 odds or shorter as of Thursday, May 2.
Coverage for the most exciting two minutes in sports starts at 1:30 p.m. CT on NBC, streaming on Peacock. The Run for the Roses is scheduled to begin at 5:57 p.m. from Churchill Downs and it can be viewed on the same services.