We close out the Florida Swing this week on the PGA TOUR at one of the trickiest venues on the schedule. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is the longtime host of the Valspar Championship in the Tampa Bay area, and the Snake Pit, along with most of the course, has been playing difficult most of the week in windy conditions. The Valspar Championship odds board shows some big names heading into the final round.
Tournament Recap Through First Three Rounds
The Valspar Championship tends to produce an interesting leaderboard due to the nature of the field each year. With the Valspar sandwiched between THE PLAYERS and the WGC-Match Play now, you’re inevitably not going to get a ton of big names out there. But you do usually get a handful of big-time names, and with how tough Innisbrook plays, those guys have often found themselves in contention on Sunday.
That will be the case again this week. Jordan Spieth and Tommy Fleetwood have been at the top of the Valspar Championship odds board since they started their weeks with a solid first round. Neither have held even a share of the lead after any of the three rounds, but they’re now both alone in a tie for second, one shot behind Adam Schenk.
Schenk, along with Fleetwood, will be looking for his first PGA TOUR win. He’s been at the top of the board since an opening-round 66. Schenk shared that first-round lead with Stephan Jaeger and Ryan Brehm, who have both fallen back since.
Schenk shouldn’t be ignored as a potential winner. He has the ability to get very hot with the putter, and he showcased a lot of guts on Saturday by making birdie on 16 and 18 to recapture that solo lead. But his pairing with Spieth will be tough due to the crowds, and Fleetwood is sure to create some noise himself in the group ahead.
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Winner: Tommy Fleetwood
Best Odds Still Available:
Once a top 10 player in the world, Tommy Fleetwood really fell into a slump around when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. It’s been a long road back since, but there’s plenty of reason to believe now that he’s close to his old self.
Fleetwood had a good end to 2022, and he was in contention at THE PLAYERS before a rough Sunday dropped him to 27th. But the irons really flashed at Sawgrass, and that was why I liked him at the tough test that is Innisbrook. He’s delivered so far, as he’s currently third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and the putter has looked solid as well with 3.03 strokes gained on the greens.
Most encouraging is that Fleetwood finished a solid 21st in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee on Saturday. He found nine fairways and played bogey-free golf. The driver can be what goes wrong for the Englishman at times, so he should be in great shape to win his first tournament on the PGA TOUR on Sunday if he can continue finding fairways and letting the rest of his game coast home.
Jordan Spieth is getting a bit too much love from the same spot as Fleetwood here, so I’ll gladly take this number just one stroke back of someone far less experienced in contention.
Winner: Wyndham Clark
Best Odds Still Available:
Wyndham Clark was exceptionally popular this week at Valspar, but his opening round led most supporters to believe their wager was already finished. But Clark has been very strong since that poor start, and he now finds himself in a position to make a run on Sunday. With 10 consecutive cuts made and a pair of top 10s this season, Clark is in as good of form as anyone on the top of this leaderboard.
Unlike most of the players in contention, Clark isn’t doing his work with the putter so far this week. He sits seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach and second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. But Clark is also historically a very strong putter. There’s no reason to believe he can’t get hot on the greens in the final round to make up some ground.
This number is very appetizing to me considering he started the week around 30/1 in many places. That number has barely been cut in half, and he sits just two strokes behind the two favorites to win the tournament.
Top-Five Finish: Taylor Moore
Best Odds Still Available: +125
Taylor Moore has been a very steady player on the PGA TOUR since he came up as a rookie last year. His only real issue is the ball striking can be quite volatile at times. So, when he doesn’t have it, it tends to be pretty clear and results in a very poor finish.
On the other end, when the irons are clicking, Moore usually logs high finishes due to a short game that is as strong as anyone’s at its best. He has the flat stick rolling again this week as he sits 12th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Moore is also very long off the tee, and he’s currently ninth in SG: Off the Tee at Innisbrook.
Most importantly, the irons are doing their job as he’s gaining 1.9 strokes on approach so far. If he can continue to not lose ground to the field with his irons, Moore should be able to hold ground and finish in the top five on Sunday due to how solid the rest of his game is.
Top-10 Finish: Doc Redman
Best Odds Still Available: +1000
Here’s a bonus for the week. I’m admittedly a huge Doc Redman guy. It’s been heartbreaking to see his fall from grace over the past couple of years. But I’ve started to see some swing changes come to fruition as of late, and he’s played very well on Friday and Saturday to make a big jump into a tie for 20th.
These are some massive odds for someone to make just two shots up in a mediocre field for the final round. Redman, at his best, was a top amateur who putts it well on Bermuda and prefers a technical test that highlights his ball striking. He’s 12th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.
Valspar Championship Odds
Click on any of the odds below to bet now and compare across sportsbooks in your state to ensure you are maximizing your potential profits before the final round on Sunday. Best of luck betting PLAYERS Championship odds.