Home » Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction, NFL odds, line, spread, time: 2024 Super Bowl picks from model on 38-21 roll

Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction, NFL odds, line, spread, time: 2024 Super Bowl picks from model on 38-21 roll

On Sunday, Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs will become only the third team in NFL history to participate in the Super Bowl four times in a five-year span. The Chiefs are also seeking back-to-back Super Bowl victories, with Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers on the other side of the field for Super Bowl 58. Kansas City knocked off San Francisco in Super Bowl 54 four years ago, the last Super Bowl appearance for San Francisco. This will be the eighth rematch in Super Bowl history, and while the Chiefs have been dominant recently, the 49ers are looking to hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the first time since the 1994 season. 

Kickoff is at 6:30 p.m. ET in Las Vegas on CBS and Paramount+. San Francisco is a two-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 47.5 in the latest Chiefs vs. 49ers odds. Before locking in any 49ers vs. Chiefs picks, make sure you see the latest NFL predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2024 NFL Super Bowl on an incredible 184-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It also is on a 38-21 roll on top-rated picks since Week 7 of last season and nailed seven straight top-rated picks entering the 2024 NFL playoffs. 

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Niners vs. Chiefs in Super Bowl 58. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds and trends for Chiefs vs. Niners:

  • Chiefs vs. 49ers spread: 49ers -2
  • Chiefs vs. 49ers over/under: 47.5 points
  • Chiefs vs. 49ers money line: 49ers -127, Chiefs +107
  • SF: 49ers are 9-10 against the spread this season
  • KC: Chiefs are 12-7-1 against the spread this season
  • Chiefs vs. 49ers picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • Chiefs vs. 49ers streaming: Paramount+ (try free for seven days)

Why the 49ers can cover

The 49ers have one of the best offensive linemen of all-time, Trent Williams. He is an 11-time Pro Bowl selection, tied for the most ever at the position. He has not allowed a single sack in 492 passing blocking snaps this season and the 49ers are averaging 5.2 yards per carry when running behind him and to the left side this season. With Williams in front, Christian McCaffrey is even more effective, and the 49ers finished in the top four of the NFL in rushing yards (140.5 per game), yards per carry (4.8), and rushing touchdowns (27) during the regular season.

McCaffrey was arguably the most potent skill position player during the regular season, leading the league in scrimmage yards (2,023), yards per carry (5.4), and total touchdowns (21). He also rushed for more than 250 yards more (1,459) than any player in the league and is the first player since 2006 to accumulate at least 25 touchdowns, including the playoffs. During San Francisco’s playoff run, he is averaging 130.0 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns per game and has reached the end zone in five consecutive playoff contests. See which team to pick here.

Why the Chiefs can cover

The Chiefs have a strong pass defense which matches up well against Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and San Francisco’s potent passing game. Kansas City ranked in the top five of the NFL in passing yards allowed (176.5 per game) during the regular season and was also in the top five in yards allowed per attempt (6.0) and passing touchdowns allowed (19). The Chiefs have also been lights-out in the 2024 NFL playoffs, yielding only 5.7 yards per pass attempt and a 57.4% completion rate.

Kansas City has six sacks in three playoff games, which comes after the Chiefs finished No. 2 with 57 sacks in a 17-game regular season. No team has a higher sack rate (8.6%) than Kansas City, including playoffs, and five-time All-Pro Chris Jones generates consistent havoc at the defensive tackle position. He was No. 2 among defensive tackles in the NFL in sacks (10.5), quarterback hits (33), and quarterback pressures (75) during the 2023 season, even while missing a game. Jones also leads all defensive tackles in tackles for loss (38), sacks (35), and quarterback pressures (217) over the last three seasons combined. See which team to pick here.

How to make Chiefs vs. 49ers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under the total, calling for 45 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model’s picks at SportsLine.

So who wins 49ers vs. Chiefs in Super Bowl 58, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the 49ers vs. Chiefs spread to pick in the 2024 Super Bowl, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.