Home » Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for El Clasico in La Liga

Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for El Clasico in La Liga

A season full of El Clasico mayhem approaches its next edition of football’s biggest rivalry as La Liga leaders Barcelona host Real Madrid at Camp Nou on Sunday.

The Blaugrana hold a nine-point lead atop the league table and could go clear by double digits with victory at home. Real Madrid know it will take more than just a win today to re-enter the title race, but moving within six would put real pressure on Barcelona down the stretch.

Neither side has been in unbeatable form across recent domestic play, suggesting anything can happen as the two meet at one of the world’s most iconic venues. Madrid played to two consecutive draws with Atletico Madrid and Real Betis before topping Espanyol last time out, while Barcelona were beaten by Almeria in late February before winning their previous two outings.

Barcelona took the most recent meeting between these two sides, winning 1-0 at the Santiago Bernabeu in the first leg of their Copa del Rey semifinal matchup. The return meeting is in early April.

The Sporting News football betting expert Kyle Bonn shares his best bets, props, and high risk/high return fliers for some of the biggest matches in the sport each week. Since the start of 2023, his best bets have hit 52.4% of the time, while his overall selections have generated a profit of over 50 units thus far. He has also correctly predicted 37 of 60 match outcomes via his 3-way moneyline leans to date.

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Barcelona vs Real Madrid odds

Barcelona, as league leaders and hosts for this match, are understandable favourites, at nearly even-money on the three-way line, but the oddsmakers are well aware that this fixture can produce some unpredictable results.

As a perfect encapsulation of that sentiment, Real Madrid have won two in a row in the league at Camp Nou, and they haven’t lost at Barcelona’s hallowed ground since 2018.

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Draw Real Madrid
Both teams
to score Y / N
Over / Under
2.5 goals
+110 +250 +230 -150 / +105 -130 / -110 +100 -145

+114 +235 +215 -154 / -102 -120 / -115 +112 -149
11/10 5/2 12/5 4/6, 11/10 10/11, 4/5
2.10 3.40 3.30 1.67 / 2.10 1.82 / 1.92
2.23 3.55 3.35 1.74 / 2.11 1.92 / 1.96 2.14 1.77

Barcelona vs Real Madrid: 3 things to know

Barcelona vs Real Madrid match facts

  • Date: Sunday, March 19
  • Kickoff Time: 4:00 p.m. ET / 8:00 p.m. GMT / 7:00 a.m. AEDT (Mon, Mar. 20)
  • Location: Camp Nou (Barcelona, Spain)
  • Official: Ricardo de Burgos Bengoetxea
  • Last meeting: Real Madrid 0-1 Barcelona (Mar. 2, 2023 | Copa del Rey)

Barcelona vs Real Madrid team news

All eyes for Barcelona will be on the status of young midfielder Pedri who has been missing since mid-February with a thigh injury. He returned to training this week and could reportedly start against Real Madrid, and at the very least would likely make the bench. Ousmane Dembele, who is nursing a long-term hamstring injury, was oddly pictured attending a Sunderland match midweek but remains sidelined. 

Karim Benzema was withdrawn from Real Madrid’s midweek Champions League win over Liverpool but is reportedly ready to go for El Clasico. The only concerns for Los Blancos are with David Alaba, whose hamstring injury will leave him sidelined, and Ferland Mendy, who has been missing since late January.

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Barcelona vs Real Madrid key stats

  • Real Madrid have gone four matches unbeaten at Camp Nou, with their last lost a 5-1 drubbing in October of 2018. That small stretch includes two consecutive victories to back up two draws.
  • Barcelona have, however, won two matches in a row against Real Madrid across all competitions. They have not won three straight El Clasico meetings since the 2011/12 season when they won a Supercopa second leg, a league match, and a Copa del Rey quarterfinal first leg all in a row.
  • Barcelona have conceded just eight goals in 25 league games this season, putting them on pace to finish with just 12 goals conceded in the full league campaign. The club record for goals conceded in a 38-game league season is 21 from the 2010/11 season. That projected mark would also best the club’s record low for a 30-game season, which was 18 back in 1968/69.

Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction

  • Moneyline lean: Real Madrid (+230)
  • Against the spread lean: Real Madrid +0.5 (-145)
  • Score prediction: Barcelona 0-1 Real Madrid

With these two teams so evenly matched all the time, making a selection based on value is the best way to play this. There’s far more value on an away win, which is far from unheard of in this rivalry.

Both teams have their strengths, and both teams have their weaknesses. Real Madrid’s weaknesses play into Barcelona’s strengths, which is why the Blaugrana have won two straight, but if anyone can take the lessons from the last two matches and apply them here, it’s Carlo Ancelotti.

We’re leaning towards a Real Madrid victory here, but with the understanding that predicting the outcome of this match isn’t the best way to play this one.

Barcelona vs Real Madrid: best bet

  • Pick: Under 2.5 goals
  • Odds: -110 (BetMGM)

The last time these two teams matched up, they cancelled each other out in a big way. Barcelona defended in large stretches, and Real Madrid were reduced to taking shots from a great distance out.

There will likely be more of the same in this game, and while Barcelona should manage more than just a meager 35 percent possession at home, neither side has been prolific at generating a ton of chances. Additionally, both goalkeepers have been excellent this season, and it will take something special to see either side through.

Barcelona are on track to set an incredible defensive record in league play, and they should be up to the task here against a bitter rival.

Barcelona vs Real Madrid prop bet

  • Pick: Match won by exactly 1 goal
  • Odds: +130 (BetMGM)

In recent years, these teams aren’t satisfied with just a point — they want to win. There hasn’t been a draw in this rivalry across all competitions in any of the last nine games, dating back to a 0-0 draw in 2019. Yet it’s been a bitter fight: of those nine games, five of them were won by a single goal.

With very little between these two teams, and a low goal output expected, this is a solid play.

Barcelona vs Real Madrid live stream, TV channel

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  TV channel Streaming
USA ESPN Deportes fuboTV, ESPN+, WatchESPN
Canada TSN+
UK Viaplay Sports 1, LaLigaTV ViaPlay
Australia Optus Sport
New Zealand Sky Sport 7 beIN Sports beIN Sports Connect
India Sports18 JioTV
Hong Kong Now Sports 2 beIN Sports Connect, Now Player, M Plus Live
Malaysia beIN Sports beIN Sports Connect, sooka
Singapore beIN Sports beIN Sports Connect, StarHub TV+