Player props can be useful in a variety of ways — from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we’re going to focus on the former.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
NBA Prop Bets
Saddiq Bey is averaging 13.3 points per game this season, but a date with a short-staffed Philadelphia 76ers team and a key injury for the Atlanta Hawks should have him punching above his weight class tonight.
As of late, Bey has been a more preeminent scorer for Atlanta. He has scored at least 16.0 points in six of his last seven games, and at least 18.0 points in five of those contests.
Clint Capela (adductor strain) is currently out for the Hawks. Capela has missed a total of four games for Atlanta this season, and in that span, Bey has exceeded 14.5 points in all but one contest, averaging 15.8 points in Capela-less outings.
Bey is accumulating 13.3 points per 36 minutes when sharing the floor with Capela, but when Capela is on the bench he is netting 16.0 points per 36 minutes. He sees higher usage, court time, and scoring production when Capela is out, so I’m high on this prop based on this injury alone.
But something has to be said for this matchup. Joel Embiid (knee) has missed six straight games for Philadelphia and will remain out for weeks to come.
In these six games — sans Embiid — the Sixers have been surrendering the third-most three-point makes (3PM) and the league’s fifth-best field goal percentage from the five-foot range. Bey nets a combined 79.3% of his points from either the paint or behind the arc, so this looks like it could be an awesome matchup.
Plus, the Sixers have been surrendering the third-most points to small forwards over their last 15 games. And dating back to last season, Bey has surpassed 14.5 points in five straight games against Philadelphia. This includes three contests from this season, in which Bey put up 15, 16, and 17 points in each. I expect him to be there again tonight.
Let’s stay with the same game here. Despite Embiid’s absence, Tyrese Maxey has been pretty quiet in his last three games, but he is in a spot to explode against a weak Hawks team.
Atlanta struggles with the league’s third-worst defensive rating while also playing at the third-fastest pace. Just last week we saw them give up a towering 60.0 points and 10.0 3PM to Stephen Curry, so I think the juicy odds on Maxey’s made threes prop is worth a look.
The Hawks surrender the fifth-most 3PM to guards per 36 minutes. Maxey has participated in 11 games against teams (including Atlanta) that rank in the top 5 of 3PM allowed to guards. In this split, he is clearing 3.5 made threes at a 63.6% clip, which is quite higher than the implied 42.7% probability for this prop via +134 odds.
Over Atlanta’s last seven games, they’ve allowed more 3PM to point guards than any other team in the league. Maxey shoots 7.5 three-point attempts (3PA) from above the break each game, and the Hawks are letting opponents shoot the ball at the third-best clip from this area.
When sharing the court alongside Embiid, Maxey nets 2.8 3PM off 7.7 3PA per 36 minutes. But without Embiid, he is draining 3.2 3PM off 8.8 3PA per 36 minutes.
I think Maxey is in a great spot for this one, so I’d consider targeting his overall point props, too. But at these plus-odds, I’ll side with Maxey to nail more than 3.5 threes for the third time against Atlanta this season.
Daniel Gafford was averaging 8.0 rebounds per game and led all Wizards in rebound chances prior to being sent to the Dallas Mavericks yesterday. Add in that Marvin Bagley III (back), who leads this team in boards per game and ranks second in rebound chances, has been ruled out for tonight, and it seems one or more Wizards players will have to step up on the boards.
Kuzma is the best candidate to do just that. For starters, he plays the most minutes on a Washington team that is often shifty. It can be difficult to predict the usage and output of many players on this team, but Kuzma is their lone constant.
In looking at how Kuzma has performed in on/off court splits alongside Gafford, I’m finding plenty of encouragement with this prop. When sharing the floor with Gafford, Kuzma is grabbing 6.5 rebounds per 36 minutes. But when Gafford is on the bench, Kuzma nets 9.6 boards per 36 minutes.
This season, Kuzma has played in four games without both Gafford and Bagley. He eclipsed 7.5 rebounds in all but one of these games, averaging 8.8 boards per night in this span.
Boston is surrendering the 11th-most rebounds per game. Although the Wizards are no match for this team (17.5-point spread), someone will have to retrieve the bevy of gimme defensive rebounds, and Kuzma comes into this one leading his team in rebound-chance percentage.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.